SDA #2: Oscar Predictions 2008

This Sunday marks one of my favorite nights of the year: Oscar night! Why? A great excuse to gamble and drinks lots of wine on a Sunday night in one of the dullest parts of the year – February to March are always rainy and slushy which to me = dull because it is unappealing to go outside. Anyway, so each year I throw an Oscar party and have a pool for the winners and somehow I always come in second which only gives me 30% of the pot. I usually take the advice of 1 or 2 critics and make my call on the awards. The problem is I always choose a few from my “they should win” part of my mind and not the “who has marketed themselves the best” or who is “old and makes the audience say, yep, great work (golf clap, golf clap).” For example, in 2006 “Crash” was in my opinion a hollywoodized look at racial, ethnic and gender conflict in the US. People should like it and if you say you do not then you are unable to grasp the pain in life. Ummm…please – the scene where the child is saved from the bullet…come on!

I, of course, voted for Brokeback Mountain which in its entirety was what film making should be poignant yet not something you want to fast forward through because of the constant shock to your system. It made me want to contemplate one focused segment of the populations complexity and struggle and the quiet life that follows a struggle. Other notable films: In the Lives of Others, Ameile, The Squid and the Whale, Juno, Bonnie & Clyde, The Children’s Hour, Pan’s Labyrinth, Tsotsi, City of God, American Beauty….I know this is balanced toward the foreign film/indie category but usually they are into analyzing the microcosms of life which is what I appreciate.

Anyway, this year though I am going to try and use some Game Theory for my choices. I am going to try and guess what “most people” will vote on and then try to find the holes in where I can take advantage of their choice. The problem with choosing is always that there is always a wildcard and it is hard to find where the wild card will be…but I am creating a document to help http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pwjxOjTDZHte1zHiMBflsWw

Most likely the other savvy competitors in the game will choose the shoe-ins because everyone looks at similar sources ie Ebert, Entertainment Weekly, but I this year will try and guess what a category I will call “savvy” will choose and then based on this see if I can find a place where by randomly taking a chance will lead me to better odds of coming out on top. Following along to see how I do…